Sharon and the Future of Palestine
1.
When Ariel Sharon first announced his intention to "disengage"
unilaterally from Gaza and to dismantle four isolated settlements in
the northern West Bank, many observers believed he was on his way to
fulfilling their expectation that, sooner or later, he would transform
himself into an Israeli De Gaulle and make the tough decisions that
would finally end the Israeli– Palestinian conflict. Even those who
were skeptical of the possibility of such a transformation, and
believed that Sharon intended the Gaza withdrawal as leverage to gain
international acceptance of Israel's control over much of the West
Bank, believed that a disengagement from Gaza would create a precedent
that would lead to further withdrawals from the West Bank as well, for
it would dispel the myth that any effort to dismantle settlements would
drag the country into a civil war. For this reason, not only the Bush
administration, which has found no measure taken by Sharon too
outrageous to deserve American support, but also the European Union,
the United Nations, and Russia (the other three members of the Quartet
formed to oversee the implementation of the "road map"), as well as
much of Israel's left, welcomed Sharon's initiative.
The perception that the principal architect of the settlement
enterprise had been transformed into a crusader for their removal has
been reinforced by an ever-widening breach between Sharon and much of
his own ruling Likud Party—which overwhelmingly turned down his
proposal for the Gaza disengagement in a referendum on May 2. The Likud
Central Committee humiliated Sharon once again on July 31 by voting
down his proposal to bring the Labor Party into the government to
create a majority in his cabinet in support of the disengagement. On
October 11, many in Sharon's ruling party joined the political
opposition in support of a pro forma motion repudiating the prime
minister's "state of the nation" speech marking the opening of the
winter term of Israel's parliament. It was the first time in Israel's
history that the Knesset voted to express no confidence in a prime
minister's opening address. Subsequently, on October 26, a clear
majority of the Knesset voted to endorse Sharon's plan, overriding the
opposition to him within the Likud Party.
Sharon's willingness to risk his premiership and to
split his own party over the issue of the Gaza withdrawal has persuaded
many in the most unlikely quarters that he has finally realized, in the
words of an editorial, that "he cannot erase the national dream of the Palestinians by force."[1] The Economist admonished "a world that has grown used to demonising Mr. Sharon" to wish "for his success."
Similarly, Avraham Tal, an Israeli columnist, asked, "Will Sharon
ever shed the demonic image that is attached to him? Even when he
decides to take actions no one ever imagined him capable of, struggling
valiantly against persistent forces in his own party trying to torpedo
him, Sharon continues to be painted as a cunning politician who always
cloaks his true intentions."[2]
Citing an Op-Ed essay I had published in the International Herald Tribune,[3]
Tal faulted "Siegman and his ilk" for failing to understand how much
Sharon has changed. He insisted that "Sharon now understands that in
order to remain a Jewish state, Israel must disengage from as many
Palestinians as possible," which means getting rid of Gaza and most of
the West Bank.
According to many of these same observers, it is not only Sharon who
has been transformed, but the Palestinian side as well. They point to a
Palestinian "Young Guard" that is challenging the so-called "Abus" who
came from Tunis with Yasser Arafat, leaders seen as corrupt and inept
by members of the younger Palestinian generation, who earned their
right to be heard by taking part in the first intifada and doing time
in Israeli jails. The Economist editorial cited above concluded
that this younger generation of Palestinians has learned that "they
cannot erase Israel by force."
Unfortunately, these views are based on a misreading of both Israeli
and Palestinian realities. Sharon is not about to agree to the minimal
conditions for a workable Palestinian state. His unshakable resolve to
avoid dealing with the Palestinians—even to prevent chaos in the wake
of the promised withdrawal from Gaza—and to widen Jewish settlement
activity throughout the West Bank, which has increased following the
announcement of his disengagement plans, gives the lie to such wishful
thinking.
The latest report from Israel's Peace Now Settlement
Watch found that building and infrastructure construction is taking
place at 474 settlement sites in the West Bank and Gaza, including
fifty sites where expansion or new construction deviates from the
existing boundaries of the settlements, in violation of promises made
by Sharon to President Bush.[4]
As of the end of August, there were around 3,700 housing units under
construction throughout the occupied territories. Moreover, the ground
was being prepared for thousands of additional houses—even in locations
earmarked by Sharon for evacuation under the disengagement plan. The
growth and extension of major settlements in the West Bank now being
carried out help to divide it into three noncontiguous Palestinian
cantons, in effect Bantustans that Palestinians could inhabit under
Israeli surveillance without having a unified state of their own.
Under the guise of "state lands" Sharon's government has continued
to expropriate territory in the West Bank to expand the settlements,
according to data from Israel's Civil Administration. Since the start
of 2004, some 2,200 dunams of land (550 acres) in the West Bank have
been declared state lands, compared to 1,700 dunams designated as such
last year. As noted by Peace Now's Settlement Watch, this designation
consistently allowed Israeli governments to establish and expand the
settlements, enabling them to circumvent their commitment not to
expropriate any more Palestinian territory for settlement construction.
For Sharon, withdrawal from Gaza is the price Israel must pay if it
is to complete the cantonization of the West Bank under Israel's
control. Just as important, Gaza is to be turned into a living example
of why Palestinians are undeserving of an independent state. Under the
conditions attached by Sharon to the disengagement, Gaza —an area that
makes up only 1.25 percent of the Palestine Mandate but contains 37
percent of the Palestinian population—will exist essentially as a large
prison isolated from the world, including its immediate neighbors
Egypt, Jordan, and the West Bank. Its population will be denied the
freedom of movement essential to any possibility of economic recovery
and outside investment. Sharon's insistence that withdrawal from Gaza
will be entirely an Israeli initiative and will not be negotiated with
any Palestinian leaders seems designed to produce a state of anarchy in
Gaza, one that will enable him to say, "Look at the violent, corrupt,
and primitive people we must contend with; they can't run anything on
their own."[5]
Until recently, many would have rejected such a
harsh reading of Sharon's intentions as defamatory. But this is now
impossible, for Sharon's closest friend and colleague, Dov Weissglas,
who has been intimately involved in the formulation and execution of
Sharon's policies as the prime minister's senior adviser and chief of
staff, has described in great detail the content and purpose of
Sharon's proposed disengagement from Gaza. In a long interview that
appeared in Haaretz,[6]
he asserts bluntly that the disengagement, which he and Sharon had
persuaded President Bush and both houses of Congress to endorse, was
actually intended to prevent a peace process, to consign Bush's road map to oblivion, and to preclude the emergence of a Palestinian state of any kind.
Apparently Weissglas was concerned that there might be Israelis who,
even after his interview, may still believe that the disengagement from
Gaza and a few West Bank settlements proposed by Sharon might lead to
further disengagements in the West Bank—an argument advanced by Shimon
Peres, the Labor Party chairman, who has been eagerly awaiting an
invitation from Sharon to rejoin his government. Weissglas assures us
that given the conditions Sharon attached to resuming a peace process,
"Palestinians would have to turn into Finns" before this could happen.
"Effectively, this whole package called the Palestinian state, with all
that it entails, has been removed indefinitely from our agenda," he
said. "And all this...with a [US] presidential blessing and the
ratification of both houses of Congress." Just in case someone may
still have illusions, he explains that the proposed disengagement "is
actually formaldehyde. It supplies the amount of formaldehyde that is
necessary so there will not be a political process with the
Palestinians." As Ephraim Sneh, a Labor member of the Knesset,
observed, "Formaldehyde, it should be noted, is the liquid in which
dead bodies are preserved."[7]
Evidently, the only ones who still don't get it, despite Weissglas's
painstaking clarifications, are the officials in Washington. After
Sharon's office issued an entirely predictable—and patently
dishonest—statement that he remains committed to the road map, a US
State Department spokesman immediately declared that not only does this
administration not doubt Israel's continued adherence to the road map
and to President Bush's two-state "vision," but there is "no cause" for
such doubt.
What is remarkable about all of this is neither Sharon's deception
about the purposes of his disengagement nor the administration's
pandering during a presidential election.[8]
It is, rather, the arrogance that allows Weissglas to flaunt Israel's
deception without fearing that it would damage Sharon's plan, so
certain are he and Sharon that they have Bush and Congress in their
pockets.
What is uncertain is why Bush signed his letter of April 14, which
Weissglas drafted, in effect giving US approval to Sharon's plan to
bury the Palestinian national cause by conferring legitimacy on
Israel's settlements. Did he do so out of sheer naiveté or because he
knowingly collaborated with Sharon's deception?
Even without Weissglas's extensive interview, it should have been
clear long before now that the "new Palestinian leadership" Sharon has
been calling for would never agree to Sharon's version of a peace
agreement—an "interim" arrangement that leaves Israel in control of the
West Bank and defers Palestinian statehood for decades while Israel
continues to annex territory and to fragment what is left into isolated
cantons.
There is no basis for the self-serving Israeli claim promoted by Ehud Barak—and by The Economist—that
the goal of the older Palestinian generation is the eradication of
Israel. Neither the Old Guard nor the Young Guard believes in that
goal—if only because they know how utterly unachievable it is. But both
groups will resist territorial concessions to Israel if they are not
accompanied by fair exchanges of territory on both sides of the
pre-1967 border that are mutually agreed to in a peace negotiation.
This issue has never distinguished the "Abus" from their challengers.
Those who identify with the Palestinian Young Guard are demanding an
end to the corruption of the old-time Fatah leaders who dominate the
Palestinian Authority; they also call for new leaders who can formulate
a coherent strategic approach to the struggle for Palestinian
statehood, something Arafat was incapable of providing. Whether the
Young Guard will succeed in producing such a strategy, and whether that
strategy will embrace or reject violence, will be determined in large
measure by Israel's willingness to assure Palestinians that a viable
state can be achieved by nonviolent means. That is an assurance that
Sharon's proposal for unilateral disengagement from Gaza does not
offer. Indeed, as everyone now knows from Weissglas's interview, it is
intended to preclude it. 2.
The assaults on Sharon from the right have been misunderstood.
Sharon and his right-wing critics differ over whether Palestinians
should be allowed to call an apartheid-like arrangement of three
disconnected and isolated West Bank cantons a state. Sharon insists
they should be, for otherwise the arrangement would be rejected by the
United States. Many in the Likud, including Benjamin Netanyahu, argue
that if Israel concedes to the Palestinians the right even to nominal
statehood, this would incite a dynamic movement toward sovereignty that
Israel would be unable to control.
Despite the abusive and violent rhetoric they direct at Sharon, most
leaders of the settlement movement understand that Sharon's unilateral
disengagement from Gaza is really intended to assure Israel's permanent
control of the West Bank. But they also fear what Israel's left hopes
for— that the precedent of removing any settlement will dispel a
longstanding taboo and open the door to the removal of settlements even
in the West Bank. Furthermore, they do not agree with Sharon that such
a withdrawal is a price Israel must pay. They are convinced that US
disapproval of Israel's continuing annexation of Palestinian
territories, even in the West Bank, would make little difference, for
the "realities on the ground" would in the end prevail. After all, did
not President Bush say in his letter to Sharon of April 14 that the US
recognizes that "new realities" on the ground (created unilaterally by
Israel) must be recognized by Palestinians in any future peace accord?
There is yet another reason for the murderous rage that has
characterized the reaction of some extremist settlers and their rabbis
(including those known in Israel as "the hilltop youth," whom the then
foreign minister Sharon encouraged after the signing in 1998 of the Wye
River Memorandum between Israel and the Palestinians—which provided for
gradual "redeployment" of Israeli forces in the West Bank—to "grab as
many hilltops in the West Bank as possible"). As some Israeli observers
have already noted,[9]
two states living side by side already exist between Jordan and the
Mediterranean—the State of Israel and the Jewish settler state in the
West Bank and Gaza. In that settler state, Israeli norms and laws do
not apply, and Israeli police and the IDF largely defer to the
settlers. Settlers who injure or murder Palestinian farmers and destroy
their property and farm lands are rarely arrested and almost always go
unpunished.[10]
This settler state has succeeded in recruiting a network of
supporters in the State of Israel, including cabinet ministers who head
various ministries that have been channeling to them— surreptitiously
and criminally, without any public accountability—hundreds of millions
of dollars for the expansion of settlements and infrastructure. These
settlers simply do not recognize the right of the State of Israel and
its elected officials to interfere with their messianically inspired
rule in this settler state. Sharon's decision to dismantle the
settlements in Gaza is seen by them as a challenge to their
"sovereignty."
Still, whatever their differences over semantics and
tactics, and over whether to let go of Gaza, Sharon and his Likud
critics share an essentially identical understanding of Israel's
relations to the Palestinian people and to the territories. No one has
described that understanding more revealingly than Uzi Arad, a foreign
policy adviser when Netanyahu was prime minister. Arad is now with the
Interdisciplinary Institute in Herzliya, at whose annual meetings
Sharon and the heads of Israel's security establishment make some of
their most important pronouncements. It was at such a meeting last
December that Sharon announced his intention to resort to unilateral
measures that would serve Israel's needs.
In an article in Haaretz,[11]
Arad scoffed at the argument that because Jews, as a result of the
higher Palestinian birth rate, will become a minority in Palestine,
they must either withdraw from the territories or impose an apartheid
regime on the Palestinians if they are to preserve the Jewish identity
of the state. He wrote that "for the last decade, all Israeli
governments have been implementing political disengagement from the
Palestinian population of the territories. The cities and towns of the
West Bank have long since been evacuated. The number of Palestinians
between the river and the sea is no longer relevant to Israel being a
Jewish democratic state."
In fact, the South African apartheid government also "disengaged"
from the Bantustans that they had set up as homelands for the black
majority. Arad and those who support Sharon's policies seem not to
understand, or not to care, that it is precisely South Africa's
"disengagement" that defined its racist regime, and that disengagement
will produce a similar result for Israel if it persists in following
the South African model by holding on to much of the West Bank and
"cantonizing" the remainder.
It is one of the ironies of history that Jews—whether in the US,
Europe, or Israel—who were disproportionately involved in struggles for
universal human rights and civil liberties should now be supporting
policies of a right-wing Israeli government that is threatening to turn
Israel into a racist state. For if Sharon leverages his promised
withdrawal from Gaza into an Israeli presence in the West Bank that is
impossible to dislodge—a point that some observers insist has already
been reached—a racist regime is surely what his policies will produce.
That likelihood is a nightmare hardly limited to Sharon's critics on
the left. Even the right-wing Ehud Olmert, Israel's deputy prime
minister, has warned that an apartheid state is the direction in which
the Jewish state is heading.[12] Nahum Barnea, Israel's most respected political commentator, recently wrote that
thirty-seven years after the occupation, in the eyes of a
large part of the world Israel has become a pariah country. It's not
yet the South Africa of apartheid, but definitely from the same family.[13]
There is no question that the terrorism resorted to
by elements within the Palestinian national movement, particularly
terrorism aimed at civilian targets, has been a major security threat
to Israel's population. But this threat cannot be invoked as a pretext
for policies that will bring apartheid rule to the West Bank and Gaza.
For it is not true that terrorism threatens the existence of the State
of Israel. And if it were true, it is a threat that can be countered by
Israel more effectively from within its pre-1967 borders, if only
because with a state of their own, Palestinians would have much to lose
from continued terrorism and would seek to prevent it. The fact is that
Israel has been far more successful in countering cross-border
terrorism from neighboring states than the terrorism of a resentful
population under its occupation.
The notion that terror can best be fought by continuing the
occupation is not the only widely held Israeli belief about the
country's security that is contradicted by logic and experience. For
some twenty years, a large majority of Israelis believed that their
most vital security interests required them to remain in southern
Lebanon. They believe the same thing about their presence on the Golan
Heights. But since Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon, security
along Israel's northern border has improved, not worsened, despite the
fact that Hezbollah was able to boast that they had chased out the
mighty IDF. And recently Moshe Ya'alon, the IDF's chief of staff, has
said that he—like his three predecessor chiefs of staff—believes that
Israel's security would not be diminished if the Golan were returned to
Syria.[14]
Israelis are also convinced that the deep incursion of Israel's
separation fence into Palestinian territory is essential to their
security, and that the recent opinion of the International Court that
it is illegal and must be removed can only be explained by the Court's
alleged anti-Semitism. But in his recent article in Yedioth Ahronot,
Nahum Barnea stated the contrary view taken by many of Israel's best
experts on security. The separation fence's route, he wrote,
should have been on the Green Line, without deviations or
trickery. That way it could have been built quickly, without legal
delays and political damage, as a security fence, not a political
border.... But the route planners, from the prime minister down,
preferred to try to pull the wool over the world's eyes. Instead of
focusing on security they preferred to play politics.
Shlomo Gazit, the retired general formerly in charge of IDF military intelligence, wrote in Maariv:
Let's face the facts. We turned the fence, which is so
necessary, from a security fence to a political fence, and that's why
we were so roundly defeated. The argument in The Hague was not about
the security needs of Israel, but about Israel's right to establish
political Jewish settlements deep inside Judea and Samaria.[15]
3.
Clearly, nothing has played more directly into Sharon's
determination to avoid a political process than Palestinian terrorism
directed at Israeli civilians. Terrorism and Arafat's disastrous
failures at Palestinian institution-building have been exploited by
Sharon to discredit the entire Palestinian national enterprise and to
undermine those in Israel and in the international community who have
sought to help it succeed. But Palestinian failures do not begin to
legitimize Sharon's policies, or those of the Bush administration, for
that matter. Palestinians have the right to a state in the West Bank
and Gaza not because they meet certain standards set by Sharon, the man
who aspires to acquiring much of their land, or because Bush has a
"vision" of two states living side by side, but because of universally
recognized principles of national self-determination.
The application of these principles to the Arabs of Palestine was
formally recognized and endorsed by the international community when
the UN adopted the resolution partitioning Palestine into Jewish and
Arab states in 1947. The Palestinian claim to what the international
community affirmed in that resolution as their rightful patrimony has
not been annulled by Arafat's bad behavior or by the failure of the
Palestinian Authority's institutions, which, one should note, have
provided far greater freedom and more accountability than are to be
found in many neighboring Arab countries.
Unfortunately, Weissglas's revelations about
Sharon's motives for the Gaza withdrawal—revelations indicating that
the Palestinians have no Israeli peace partner—will have little
impact on Israel's continuing claim that there is no Palestinian
partner with whom it can negotiate. Weissglas's statement will probably
have no more effect than previous revelations by Israel's most senior
intelligence and security officials that the intifada of September 2000
was not planned by Arafat, but a spontaneous eruption of Palestinian
anger which they had predicted well before it occurred.
Ami Ayalon, the head of Israel's Shin Bet under Ehud Barak (and
before that the chief of Israel's navy), warned Prime Minister Barak
that the unrestrained growth of settlements under his administration
and his neglect of the Palestinian peace process in favor of efforts to
reach a Syrian agreement (which, we now know from President Clinton's
and Dennis Ross's memoirs, failed because Ehud Barak reneged on the
deal), and, above all, the hardships and humiliations experienced by
Palestinians in the territories, created an explosive situation that
only needed a spark to set it off. That spark, according to Ayalon, was
Sharon's calculatedly provocative visit in September of 2000 to the
Temple Mount.[16]
This, too, was the conclusion of the Mitchell Commission following its
careful investigation of the causes of the intifada. Ayalon has stated
repeatedly that the Shin Bet had no evidence that Arafat planned a
second intifada. Had he been doing so, the Shin Bet would have known
about it.
The central thesis of Sharon and many other Israeli
leaders that Arafat's objective was not a Palestinian state in the West
Bank and Gaza but in all of Palestine has been dismissed as unfounded
by the reserve general Amos Malka, who served as the IDF's chief of
intelligence under Barak. He and other key Israeli intelligence
officials have accused Amos Gilad, who was in charge of the IDF's
intelligence research branch, of lying when he implied that his view
that Arafat's goal was the dismantling of Israel was based on
intelligence information. Instead, according to Malka,
All military intelligence assessments spoke of Arafat
wanting to go through with the political process to reach a two-state
permanent settlement.... If his demands were met, he would have signed.
If not, by the end of 2000 he would have headed toward a crisis to
create domestic and international pressure on Israel to be more
flexible in its positions, just as he had done in the past.
Malka dismissed as "total nonsense" the charge that Arafat conspired to eradicate Israel.[17]
Yet these revelations have made no dent in the widespread Israeli
conviction that Arafat was the author of the intifada, that he
orchestrated it even before he entered peace talks with Barak at Camp
David, and that he rejected Barak's peace proposals because his real
goal has been, and continues to be, the destruction of the State of
Israel. Israelis cannot conceive of any other explanation for Arafat's
rejections of Barak's "generous" proposals at Camp David. Israel's
four-decades-long occupation of Palestinian lands has apparently so
dulled the moral imagination of its citizens that it does not occur to
them that Barak's demand that Israel's territory, which already
comprises 78 percent of Palestine, be enlarged with additional
Palestinian territory taken from the 22 percent—less than half of what
the UN allotted to a Palestinian state in 1947—that is left them could
hardly have been considered generous by any Palestinian.
4.
With Arafat apparently near death as this article goes to press on
November 4, Sharon will have the opportunity to disprove his critics'
accusation that he has shamelessly used Arafat and the "no partner"
argument as a pretext to continue Israel's annexation of the West Bank.
He can do so by ending unilateral measures and resuming negotiations
with a new Palestinian leadership based on an unconditional acceptance
of the road map, i.e., without the fourteen crippling reservations
adopted by his cabinet on May 27, 2003, which emptied Israel's
acceptance of the road map of all meaning.
The road map requires the Palestinian Authority to make good-faith
efforts to halt the violence by consolidating its security forces and
demobilizing the militias and terrorist groups. This will not happen
overnight, and to succeed, Israel will have to support a new leadership
by ending settlement activity, removing checkpoints, and gradually
withdrawing the IDF to pre-intifada positions. If Sharon again insists
that none of this will happen until all violence has ceased and
Jeffersonian democracy has been brought to Gaza and the West Bank, then
we will know he is up to his old tricks and has no intention of ever
engaging Palestinians in political negotiations.
If Sharon rises to the occasion, he will prove that he has indeed
transformed himself into a statesman, and not only Israelis and
Palestinians but the world will be in his debt. If he stalls, and
subverts the new Palestinian leaders the way he subverted Mahmoud Abbas
when he assumed the Palestinian premiership over a year ago, Sharon's
toxic role in the peace process should finally become clear to all.
The end of Arafat's presidency similarly challenges the incoming
US administration. Will it repeat President Bush's betrayal of his
promise last year to "ride herd" on both parties to assure compliance
with the road map, or will it assume the role of an honest broker
prepared to do what only a great power can do to end the conflict?
If Israel and/or the Palestinians fail to respond to this unexpected
opening for a return to the road map, and the US fails to intervene
aggressively to prevent such failure, the international community must
finally abandon the "facilitation" model that has been the basis of all
previous US and other Middle East peace initiatives. Facilitation
assumes that, for all their differences, the adversaries prefer a
resolution of their conflict to its continuation, a situation that
existed during the Oslo period, between 1993 and 2000 (with the
exception of the period of Benjamin Netanyahu's premiership).
Facilitation limits the role of third parties to helping both sides
overcome obstacles that stand in the way of achieving a goal they both
desire. But when Sharon came to power, both parties came to believe
they had more to gain from a continuation of the conflict than from its
resolution, and the facilitation model became irrelevant.
Facilitation, it should be clear, no longer holds
any hope of ending the conflict. Only interventionism can. Because the
conflict is exacting an unacceptable human cost and endangering
critical strategic interests of many other countries, including the war
to defeat global terrorism, the international community should no
longer permit it to continue. The UN, the EU, Russia, and—it is to be
hoped—the US should therefore convene an international conference that
is not dependent on the approval, or even the participation, of
Israelis and Palestinians, who have proven beyond any doubt that if
left to their own devices, they will allow the conflict to become worse
before it becomes even worse. The goal of this international conference
would be the adoption of internationally endorsed principles for the
resolution of the major permanent status issues in the
Israeli–Palestinian conflict.
Those principles are widely known and widely supported, and it
should not be difficult to bring about an international consensus in
support of them. In addition to the requirement that the pre-1967
border must be the starting point for the negotiations, a stipulation
already contained in the road map, they would also include the
following provisions: that territorial changes be based on equal
exchanges on both sides of that border; that the right of return of
Palestinian refugees be exercised in the new state of Palestine and not
in Israel; and that Arab sections of East Jerusalem become part of the
Palestinian state and serve as its capital. In addition, special
arrangements will have to be made for the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif.
Sovereignty of these holy places should be divided along lines of
previous proposals, i.e., by assigning sovereignty over the Haram to
Palestinians and over the Wailing Wall and related structures to
Israel; or by a "horizontal" division assigning above-ground
sovereignty of the Temple Mount/ Haram al-Sharif to the Palestinians,
and below-ground sovereignty to Israel. Alternatively, the issue of
Israeli or Palestinian sovereignty over the holy places could be
bypassed by setting up administrative arrangements in which a third,
international party would participate.
These basic provisions would not be subject to change by either
party, except by agreement between the two. The party that unilaterally
rejects them, or takes unilateral measures that violate them, would be
subject to economic and diplomatic sanctions. At the very least, such a
clear and decisive international intervention would deny the offending
party any prospect of gaining international recognition of measures
taken in violation of the internationally adopted principles for an
Israeli–Palestinian peace agreement.
To be sure, it is highly unlikely that the newly
elected Bush administration in Washington would agree to join in such a
conference or support such an interventionist role. But Washington
would be hard put to argue that the provisions likely to emerge from
such an international conference are not implicit in the road map and
in Bush's much-repeated support of a two-state solution. Nor is it
impossible that the new US administration will be more open to new
ideas for ending the conflict than its spokesmen were willing to admit
during the heated presidential campaign. What is certain, I believe, is
that after having served—humiliatingly—as tails to the American kite in
the Quartet's futile efforts to implement the road map, neither Europe,
the UN, nor Russia will agree to continue in that role. While the
European Union and the UN did not get very far in ending the
Israeli–Palestinian conflict before joining the Quartet, their position
has since become even more marginalized. They have gained no new
leverage with either Israel or the Palestinians, and the conflict has
become uglier and more costly than ever.
Obviously, such an internationally endorsed framework of principles
is not self-implementing, and will be rejected by Israel, the stronger
of the two parties. Palestinians, too, may object to certain of the
provisions, such as the requirement that Palestinian refugees be
repatriated in the new Palestinian state and in countries willing to
receive them. But the point of such an international effort would be to
change the calculation of costs and benefits that both sides engage in.
That calculation would be significantly affected by the prospect that
the offending party's diplomatic and economic relations with much of
the international community would be damaged, and that it would have no
prospect of receiving international recognition for unilateral measures
it may take.
That is an outcome even a right-wing Israeli government cannot be
indifferent to, as is evident from recent warnings from within Israel's
foreign ministry about the destructive consequences of Israeli policies
that are seen by the European Union as transforming Israel into an
apartheid state. Despite the derision expressed by Sharon and his
government in response to the opinion of the International Court of
Justice about the illegality of the route of Israel's separation fence,
that opinion has affected some decisions since made by Israel's Supreme
Court and the IDF regarding the route of the fence. Even Sharon's
right-wing government experienced a sobering shock when all European
Union member states, including the ten new states that Sharon's
government believed to be more sympathetic to its policies, voted on
July 20 in favor of a UN General Assembly resolution calling for the
removal of the separation fence.
Much now depends on the possibility that this unexpected European
unity on the Middle East peace process was an augury of things to come.
—November 4, 2004
Notes
[1] July 31–August 6, 2004.
[2] Haaretz, August 26, 2004.
[3] August 20, 2004.
[4] Americans for Peace Now: Middle East Report, Vol. 6, Issue 11 (October 4, 2004).
[5] Gideon Samet, Haaretz, July 21, 2004.
[6] October 8, 2004.
[7] Haaretz, October 11, 2004.
[8] See Henry Siegman, "Israel: The Threat from Within," The New York Review, February 26, 2004, and "Sharon's Phony War," The New York Review, December 18, 2003.
[9] Yoel Marcus, Haaretz, October 9, 2004.
[10] On October 25, 2004, Haaretz
reported that a settler charged with the murder of a Palestinian taxi
driver "for no reason and without any authority," was not jailed, as
any Arab indicted murderer would have been, but placed under house
arrest in his home in his settlement, Itamar.
[11] August 6, 2004.
[12] Yedioth Ahronot, December 5, 2003.
[13] Yedioth Ahronot, July 12, 2004.
[14] Yedioth Ahronot, August 13, 2004.
[15] July 12, 2004.
[16] From an interview with Ami Ayalon by Sylvain Cypel, "An Unconditional Withdrawal from the Territories Is Urgently Needed," Le Monde,
December 24, 2001, and transcript from a roundtable meeting at the
Council on Foreign Relations, "The Middle East Roadmap and Its
Aftermath," September 15, 2003, at www.cfr.org.
[17] Yedioth Ahronot, June 30, 2004.
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